Gambling: Myths & Facts

It has happened numerous times when I play blackjack that I become the advice giver for about half the other players at the table. Usually when this happens either the dealer or another player will rebuke my advice saying, "trust your feelings" to the person seeking advice. Belief in superstition and psychic powers is for weak people who feel they must have control over forces beyond their control. Since May 1, 1996 the James Randi Educational Foundation has offered $1,000,000 to anyone who can demonstrate anything supernatural. The fact is that claims of paranormal powers never stand up under scientific scrutiny. The player who trusts their feelings more than the odds will win sometimes but in the long run the player who goes by the odds will always do better. The player has the free will to play by their feelings on their side and the casinos have the odds on their sides. Who always wins in the long run?

An event is either more or less likely if it has not happened for a long time.

Many people falsely believe, for example, that if one color has won several times in a row in roulette then the other color is overdue and will bet on it. While the ratio of reds to blacks will always approach 50/50 in the long term it can not be concluded that this will happen in the short term. It does not matter what the history of past spins is, every trial in games of luck like roulette are independent, and each color is equally likely to come up every time. If you don't believe my try guessing the toss of 1000 coin flips using any method of prediction you like. I guarantee that 99% of the time you will get between 459 and 541 correct.

That idiot at third base is killing me.

A common myth at the blackjack table is that a bad player, especially one in the last seat, will disrupt the natural order of the cards and cause everyone to lose. It is true that such a player sometimes will make a play that will result in the dealer beating everybody rather than breaking. However in the short run such a player is just as likely to help you as to hurt you and in the long run they won't make any difference. The cards are in random order and they are not prearranged to make the dealer break assuming correct play. If anyone rebukes you for hitting a stiff hand at third base tell them you'll keep doing so when the odds favor it and if they don't like it they can find another table.

A friend of a friend of somebody I know makes out well using a gambling system.

People are much more likely to boast about winning than admit to losing. The fact is that no system can beat a game of luck in the long run.